Poland pre-authorises shoot-downs as jet-powered drones test NATO's eastern flank

A Russian jet-powered drone struck Ukrainian territory about 2 km from the Dorohusk border crossing with Poland on Monday afternoon, Polish Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz reported. Polish airspace was not violated, and air-defence systems and aircraft returned to standby after the all-clear. But the incident capped a week in which Warsaw stopped merely scrambling fighters and started pre-authorising their fire.

From scramble to shoot-down

On 17 September, Deputy Defence Minister Cezary Tomczyk confirmed that operational commanders had issued a standing shoot-down order for Russian drones that cross the border. Speaking to Polish outlet Onet, Tomczyk described it as "an order with pre-authorisation, meaning the pilot no longer has to check with the operational commander whether the object is within range and whether they can fire but can automatically, upon detecting the object, shoot down such a drone or missile."

The change is driven by the performance of Russia's jet-powered drones, which are significantly faster and harder to intercept than the earlier propeller-driven Shahed-type designs. Tomczyk was quick to add that visual identification remains mandatory in peacetime, citing the "enormous" risk of shooting down a civilian aircraft. For engineers who work on air-defence sensor chains, that is the practical tension: reaction time versus positive identification, measured in seconds.

Polish pilots have had plenty of drills. On 24 September, Poland said a Russian Mi-8 helicopter from Kaliningrad penetrated its airspace to a depth of 300 metres, staying for 42 seconds north of Braniewo; fighter jets were scrambled. The army's Operational Command said "the nature of the incident indicates that Russia is once again testing the readiness of our air defence."

The civilian-operations cost

The military activity is not free of side effects for civil aviation. Rzeszów and Lublin airports suspended operations twice on 17 September as jets launched and air-raid alerts went out to border counties, and again during Monday's strikes. Operations resumed after about an hour each time, but the pattern is now weekly. Poland has also restricted air traffic over the east of the country until 9 December to give air-defence units room to work.

On the ground, the government began distributing 12-page air-attack guidance booklets on 25 September, covering shelter routes, evacuation backpacks and the "two-walls rule" for staying indoors. The supplements go through municipal authorities and government websites — a sign that civil-defence planning is no longer theoretical.

New hardware in the debris

Technical analysis is closing in on what Russia is using. Prosecutors in Poznań said a drone found on a Baltic beach on 14 September was a Russian Gerbera-2 carrying a fragmentation warhead with a detonator, neutralised on site. The defence minister said it likely flew from Russia via Lithuania; Lithuania is investigating jointly. If confirmed, this is a land-attack variant of a drone type previously used for reconnaissance — a capability shift worth tracking.

Defence industry told to harden up

Warsaw's warnings are rippling through the European defence-tech ecosystem. Dutch outlet NOS reports that after a series of attacks on European defence companies attributed to Russia, Dutch firms are being told to raise security. Clingendael defence expert Bart van den Berg says the regulatory framework still "thinks in terms of war or peace" and does not account for the grey zone. TNO's defence science director Christa Hooijer put it plainly: "Given the knowledge we develop, we are a target of espionage and attempts to steal trade secrets." For small defence startups selling into Ukraine, that means physical security, vetting and supply-chain controls are now part of the product.

Politics in motion

Two strategic tracks are moving in parallel. On 17 September, President Donald Trump announced "major progress" on a permanent US Army base in Poland, with a location to be announced "very soon." Polish defence planners have made no secret that they want a permanent US presence as a tripwire and a capability anchor.

On the same day, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said intelligence showed Russian plans for hybrid attacks using drones and missiles against countries supporting Ukraine, including NATO members, with Moscow likely to pass off incidents as accidents. His defence minister made the strategic logic explicit: supporting Ukraine's air defence is Polish self-defence. "Missiles are falling, drones are falling a kilometre from the Polish border," Kosiniak-Kamysz told the Sejm. "If Ukraine does not have air defence systems... most of them will fly across Ukraine and reach Poland."

Tusk warned at the end of August that the next seven to eight months would be critical. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, after a call with Tusk, cautioned that the next six months will be decisive and that provocations against a member state cannot be ruled out. The shoot-down order is Poland's answer: first the identification, then the engagement — and no time for a phone call.